送交者: skipper3 于 2006-4-10, 17:43:50:
"China Takes to the Road" (ZT)
original BW report is at:
http://www.businessweek.com/autos/content/mar2006/bw20060330_960009.htm?chan=globalbiz_asia_companies
China Takes to the Road
Increasing prosperity is underwriting a vast increase in car ownership. U.S. auto makers won't be the big winners
Are we seeing a trickle-down effect in China's economy affect the automotive market? Based on the market's performance in the last 15 months, it appears an emerging middle class is graduating to car ownership.
Passenger-vehicle sales in China are once again blowing the doors off expectations. In 2005, auto sales posted a muscular 27% year-over-year gain -- and the year ended with the market recording November and December as the two highest-ever sales months. The auto market expanded last year by 661,234 new vehicles.
The momentum, it seems, is continuing. In the first two months of 2006, passenger-vehicle sales have increased more than 80%, vs. the same period last year. In China, that kind of sensational growth usually comes with a catalyst -- a new policy, or easy credit, or some other variable -- that triggers consumers to visit their local dealers. The last time we saw something like this was just after China's entry into the World Trade Organization, when vehicle sales increased 60% to 80% annually during 2002 and 2003.
PEOPLE ARE RICHER. This time, however, there's no impending legislation that would drive consumers to the market in these numbers. Consumer financing of vehicles peaked in 2003, when about 30% to 35% of all vehicles sold were financed (after that, the Chinese government started to put restrictions on consumer credit, in order to try to cool a sizzling market). Today, according to a recent survey of auto dealers in China conducted by Deutsche Bank, vehicles purchased with credit account for only 10% to 15% of all sales.
What is going on here? I decided to find out by visiting my local Buick dealer in Beijing, and putting the question to him. He smiled widely and said: "People are getting richer. They are ready to spend money on their own car -- especially for the less expensive models."
The numbers support his claim. While there was growth in every segment, the low end of the market achieved the greatest growth in terms of net vehicle sales added to the road. Sales of microcars and subcompacts accounted for 40% of the net growth in 2005. Sales of SUVs and luxury sedans also grew at a rapid clip, although they started from a much lower base.
SALES FLIP-FLOP. As little as 10 years ago, 80% to 85% of passenger vehicles in China were purchased by companies or government entities, with personal purchases accounting for the remaining 15% to 20%. Those percentages have flip-flopped in the last decade, with individuals now believed to account for between 85% and 90% of all auto sales.
Five years ago, personal buyers were entrepreneurs, small businessmen, or well-compensated local executives at large companies, who used their money to buy larger and more expensive vehicles. For example, some 21% of all passenger vehicles sold in 2001 consisted of vehicles priced over 250,000 RMB ($31,250). That is a hefty price tag for an automobile, especially in a country where the economy is still in development.
At the same time, in 2001 vehicles priced under 119,000 RMB ($15,000) accounted for 39% of the market -- nearly two of every five cars. While the market share of the low-priced vehicles is greater than that of the higher-priced segment, it is still considered low compared with traditional developing automotive markets, where you would expect low-priced vehicles to account for 60% to 70% of the market.
Looking at 2005 figures, we see that vehicles priced over 250,000 RMB ($31,250) account for just 3% to 4% of the market, a drastic decline in market share. On the other hand, vehicles priced under 119,000 RMB ($15,000) accounted for 63% of the market, or nearly two of every three cars sold. This structure, of course, reflects a much more traditional market, with low volumes in the high-priced market segments, and high volumes in the low-priced segment.
THE WINNERS. Who will this trend benefit? The Japanese, Korean, and European auto makers, where high fuel prices have forced them over the past 20 years to design and engineer efficient and popular small vehicles. Auto makers like General Motors (GM ) and Ford (F )-- whose home-market vehicles are engineered for power and comfort -- will need to rely on powertrains from their Asian and European affiliates to meet the demands of the burgeoning small-car segment.
Back at my Beijing dealership, my friendly sales rep shows me a few models in the showroom. The cars, he says, are flying out the door. "It's like they have wings," he says with a another smile. "You better buy now or there will be no stock left."
Rank Manufacturer 2005 Sales 2004 Sales % Change
1 Shanghai General Motors Corp. 324,842 265,993 22%
2 Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive 250,061 354,328 -29%
3 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive 240,119 300,117 -20%
4 Beijing Hyundai Motor Co. 233,668 144,090 62%
5 Guangzhou Honda Automobile 230,773 202,066 14%
6 FAW-TAIC 190,019 128,473 48%
7 Chery Automobile 189,158 86,567 119%
8 Dongfeng Motor Co. (Nissan) 157,516 60,784 159%
9 Geely Automotive Holdings 149,869 96,693 55%
10 Dongfeng Peugeot-Citroen Automobile 140,399 89,129 58%
Source: ARA's China Automotive Report